Since 2021, China has coordinated epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, maintaining steady economic recovery and further improving the quality of development. Under favorable macroeconomic conditions, the
Auto Lathe Machine tool industry continues its recovery growth trend since the second half of 2020, with continuous improvement in market demand, significant growth in imports and exports, and the operation of the
Automatic Turning Machine tool industry continues to maintain a good trend.
I. Basic information of industry operation
Based on the statistical data of key enterprises contacted by China
Lathe Machining Tool Industry Association, as well as the survey of enterprises of the association and the information provided by some branches, the operation situation of machine tool industry in the first 10 months of 2021 is summarized as follows.
From January to October 2021, the overall operation of the industry still maintained steady growth. Influenced by the base factors of last year, the year-on-year growth rate of the main indicators continued to decline month by month, but the year-on-year growth rate was still high.
1. Operating revenue generally increased substantially
From January to October 2021, the operating revenue of key related enterprises increased by 31.6% year-on-year, 2.7 percentage points lower than that of January to September. The operating revenue of each sub-industry increased significantly year on year. Among them, metal cutting machine tools grew by 35.3%, metal forming machine tools by 21.5%, measuring tools by 17.7%, abrasives by 33.6%, and rolling functional parts saw the largest increase of 79.9%.
Figure 1 is a comparison of the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative operating revenue of key related enterprises from January to September 2021 to 2020 and 2019.
Figure 1. Year-on-year growth of operating revenue of key related enterprises
2. All sub-industries are fully profitable
From January to October 2021, the total profits of key related enterprises increased significantly year on year, and all sub-industries achieved profits. The machine tool industry, long suffering from losses or thin margins, has improved.
3. Higher year-on-year growth of orders
From January to October 2021, new orders of metal processing machine tools from key enterprises increased by 29.4% year-on-year. By the end of October, orders on hand were up 22.4 per cent from a year earlier. Among them, the new orders of metal cutting machine tools increased by 28.9% year-on-year, and the orders in hand increased by 12.8% year-on-year; New orders for metal-forming machine tools increased 30.7 percent year on year, while hand orders increased 48.6 percent year on year. Metal forming machine orders on hand outstanding year-on-year growth, for the next stage of stable operation has laid a good foundation.
4. The output of machine tools increased significantly, and there were decreases and increases in finished products warehouse
According to the data released by the National Statistical Bureau, from January to October 2021, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 492,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 31.9%; The output of metal-forming machine tools was 174,000 units, up 6.1 percent year on year.
FIG. 2 and FIG. 3 respectively show the year-on-year growth rates of the output of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools from January to September 2021, compared with 2020 and 2019.
FIG. 2 Year-on-year growth rate of metal cutting machine tool output
FIG. 3 Year-on-year growth of the output of metal forming machine tools
According to the statistics of key enterprises associated with the association, from January to October 2021, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 27.4% and the output value increased by 37.7% compared with the same period last year. The output of metal forming machine tools increased by 23.0% and the output value increased by 27.0% year-on-year. The growth rate of output value above is significantly higher than that of corresponding output, indicating that the value of a single machine tool has increased.
From January to October 2021, inventories of key related enterprises increased by 11.6% year on year. Among them, raw materials and finished goods increased by 19.0 percent and 2.1 percent year-on-year. Finished goods inventories of metalworking machine tools increased by 6.7% year-on-year. Among them, metal-cutting machine tools and metal-forming machine tools saw year-on-year growth of 7.3 percent and 3.3 percent.
Ii. Import and Export situation
According to the data of China Customs, the import and export of machine tools from January to October 2021 continued the good momentum of the first half of the year, and continued to grow rapidly. The total volume of imports and exports was US $26.95 billion, up 32.2 percent year on year. From January to October 2021, the import and export of machine tools maintained the surplus since June 2019, with a surplus of $3.90 billion.
In terms of imports, there was an overall trend of obvious growth from January to October 2021. The import of machine tools and commodities was US $11.52 billion, up 23.1 percent year on year. Among them: the import value of metalworking machine tools was 6.20 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 27.1%(among which, the import value of metalworking machine tools was 5.18 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 29.1%; Imports of metal-forming machine tools were $1.02 billion, up 18.2% year on year). The import value of cutting tools was US $1.39 billion, up 16.7% year on year. The import value of abrasives and abrasives was 630 million US dollars, up 26.8% year on year.
The top five imports of metalworking machine tools were: processing centers $2.26 billion, accounting for 36.5 percent; Special processing machine tools $1.04 billion, accounting for 16.7%; Grinder $740 million, 11.9%; Lathe, $490 million, 7.9%; Forging or stamping machines accounted for $250 million, or 4.0%.
The top three sources of imports from January to October 2021 are: Japan USD 3.78 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 34.1%; Germany $2.44 billion, up 12.5%; China's Taiwan $1.56 billion, up 34.4% year on year.
The cumulative import situation of each commodity category is shown in Figure 4.
Figure 4Imports of China's machine tool industry by category from January to October 2021
In terms of exports, the trend of substantial growth continued from January to October 2021. The export of machine tools and commodities reached 15.43 billion US dollars, up 39.8 percent year on year. Among them, the export value of metalworking machine tools was $4.24 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 33.9%(among which, the export value of metalworking machine tools was $3.23 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 33.9%; Metal-forming machine tool exports were $1.31 billion, up 33.8% year on year). The export value of cutting tools was $3.11 billion, up 36.4% year on year. The export value of abrasives and abrasives was US $3.30 billion, up 63.2% year on year.
The top five metal processing machine tool exports are: special processing machine tools $1.33 billion, accounting for 31.4%; Lathes, $410 million, or 9.8%; Form bending machine $330 million, 7.8%; Other forming machine tools $290 million, accounting for 6.7%; Processing centers accounted for 5.4%, or $230 million.
From January to October 2021, the top three exports are respectively: the United States $1.95 billion, a year-on-year growth of 26.5%; Vietnam $1.14 billion, up 27.7%; India was $10.0 billion, up 62.8% year on year.
See Figure 5 for cumulative exports by commodity category.
Figure 5 Cumulative export of machine tool products (USD 100 million)
Iii. Operation status of listed companies in machine tool industry in the first half of 2021
Machine tool industry listed companies concentrated a number of industry quality and typical enterprises. The operation of this group of enterprises is of great significance to analyze and judge the development trend of the industry.
We selected 53 enterprises with outstanding industry characteristics as the key monitoring and analysis objects of listed companies in the industry. Among the 53 listed companies, there are 22 on the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and 18 on the Growth Enterprise Board. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has six main boards and seven science and technology innovation boards.
Among them, metal cutting machine tool enterprises accounted for 30%, metal forming machine tool enterprises accounted for 8%, measuring tools enterprises accounted for 13%, abrasive abrasives enterprises accounted for 26%, CNC device enterprises accounted for 11%, machine tool accessories and functional parts enterprises accounted for 8%, woodworking machinery enterprises accounted for 4%.
By the end of the first half of 2021, the assets of listed companies under key monitoring totaled 218.12 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% compared with the beginning of the year. Total liabilities totaled 107.65 billion yuan, up 11.2% from the beginning of the year. The debt-asset ratio stood at 49.4 percent, up 1 percentage point from the beginning of the year.
In the first half of 2021, the listed companies under key monitoring achieved a cumulative operating revenue of 52.81 billion yuan, up 40.5% year on year. The cumulative profit reached 5.43 billion yuan, up 53.6% year on year. The cumulative net profit reached 4.64 billion yuan, up 62.3% year on year. The loss in the first half of 2021 was 13.2%, 7.6 percentage points narrower than the same period last year.
In the first half of 2021, the operating income profit margin of the listed companies under key monitoring was 10.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9 percentage points, and the enterprises with a year-on-year growth accounted for 64.2%.
According to the data of the listed companies' assets, operating income, profit and other indicators monitored above, the overall operation of listed enterprises in the machine tool industry in the first half of 2021 has been greatly improved compared with the same period last year. But from the absolute data of such indicators as profit margin and weighted average return on equity, the profitability of most companies is still weak.
4. Operation characteristics of the industry
1. The operation of the whole industry continues to maintain stable recovery and growth
From the above statistical data, the machine tool industry as a whole and each sub-industry in the first 10 months of 2021 major indicators have achieved significant year-on-year growth, profitability has been improved. The machine tool industry as a whole maintains a relatively stable recovery and growth situation.
2. The import and export of machine tool products show a continuous growth trend
In the first 10 months of 2021, the import and export of machine tool products increased significantly year on year. The growth rate of export was much higher than that of import, and the trade surplus kept expanding. The import and export of metalworking machine tools completely reversed the negative growth trend of the previous two years.
3. The order of metal working machine tools is satisfactory
From January to October 2021, the orders of metal processing machine tools maintained a significant year-on-year growth trend. Among them, the metal forming machine tool industry in hand orders growth rate is significantly higher than the metal cutting machine tool industry, indicating that the recovery and growth of the industry is expected to accelerate.
4. Listed companies grow rapidly, but most of them still have weak profitability
From the data of assets, operating income, profit and other indicators, the overall operation of listed enterprises in the machine tool industry in the first half of 2021 has been significantly improved compared with the same period last year. However, from the perspective of profit margin and other indicators, the profitability of most enterprises is still weak.
5. Unfavorable factors of industry operation have increased
Since 2021, the operation of the machine tool industry has been greatly impacted by adverse factors such as multiple large-scale epidemics, frequent natural disasters, rising prices of industrial raw materials, limited international logistics, and rising export costs. Some of these factors emerged after the third quarter. At the same time, due to the impact of the epidemic at home and abroad, the industrial structure is unreasonable, and some weak links in the industrial chain and supply chain have become prominent constraints.
Recent power cuts and sharp price increases of industrial raw materials have been alleviated, but the subsequent impact on the operation of the machine tool industry and market demand can not be ignored.
V. Forecast of machine tool industry situation in 2022
In the first 10 months of 2021, the market demand of the machine tool industry is relatively strong. The industry is running smoothly and recovering with a steady trend of improvement and obvious growth. Without taking into account the inflation factor, we expect that the operating revenue of the machine tool industry in 2021 will grow by more than 20% year on year.
Due to the base effect caused by the epidemic in 2020, the growth rate of cumulative operating revenue of key enterprises associated with the association decreased month by month in 2021. Month-on-month growth was maintained in the first half of the year, but the month-on-month growth in July and August was down 23.2 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, showing fluctuations.
In terms of macroeconomic environment, since the second half of 2021, risks and challenges at home and abroad have increased, the global epidemic is spreading, the recovery momentum of the world economy has slowed down, international commodity prices have stayed high, and some parts of China have been hit by multiple impacts of the epidemic and flood. After staying above the critical point for 18 consecutive months, China's manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range in September and October 2021, and returned to the critical point in November, at 50.1%. In the first 11 months of 2021, China's fixed-asset investment grew by 5.2%, including 11.1% in the secondary industry, -3.7% in equipment and appliances, and -3.2% in the automobile manufacturing industry, all at relatively low levels in recent years. At the same time, in recent months, some user areas of the machine tool industry have fluctuated.
According to the 2021 Central Economic Work Conference, "China's economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations," and the external environment has become "more complex, severe and uncertain." Stabilizing growth will be a key task in 2022. We will require the government to increase the intensity and speed up the pace of spending, and appropriately advance infrastructure investment. The meeting pointed out that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, and all sectors should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability, giving priority to policy efforts.
The year 2022 will be the second year of the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 20th CPC National Congress. It is expected that the policy level will boost economic growth more than usual, which will also strongly boost the market demand for machine tools.
Taking various favorable and unfavorable factors into consideration, it is expected that in 2022, China's machine tool industry will continue the good operation trend of this year, but due to the high base in 2021, the annual operating revenue and other major indicators in 2022 May be flat or slightly increase with that in 2021.
